ES - 4396 Pivot to 4441 E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT) CME_MINI:ES1! HK_L61 Patiently waiting for the Equity Complex to resolve after 6 long days of consolidation within an expanding range felt far more lengthy than it was. Yesterday we warned of the Overthrows in Down Trend Channels for Price as the Daily Channel had tested Support at its Lower Channel. We are using the important levels of 4393/96 and 4441 as the potential Overhead Objectives for this retracement, from there we will observe the reaction. The ES was entered and Bought to Open (BTO) @ 8 X 4356, 6/8 were closed in BPT @ 4380 as when Price begins retracing, Globex is used for the majority of the movement. We will see if it follows on during RTH , typically in this type of retracement, it is straight-up during Globex, while RTH moves within the Hourly extensions. We finally have our larger retracement underway. The Futures Gap remains open above, the all-important 4441 level should be reached ahead of October 21st. As mentioned previously, this date is showing up on many Charts convergence Objectives. We will be using 1/8th to 1/4 size for this retracement and trading BTOs at the appropriate times. THe 200SMAs and lower remain open with Lower Lows in trade. We do not Trust this Counter-Trend, and why the reduced size. There are far too many vectors for further downside. China's Real Estate Issues are simply beginning, DEBT remains an enormous Albatross, FX is in Flux, and Yields are far from completing their moves. Taiwan... an issue, Semis... an Issue, EPS Warnings... an Issue... There are far too many to list. The Debt Edifice is simply filling the Gaps we indicated would be filled. A bit too early to be popping corks on the likes of TLT , ZN, ZB, and Debt Structures, they are doing what they always do, back and fill over and over. Complexity will develop in this retracement as it is an all or nothing move, treat it accordingly. We remain in the belief, lower lows are ahead for 4/4 before new ATHs for 5/5 and will adjust as necessary. Nothing has changed fundamentally. Bulls will suggest "Seasonality" favors a turn here. IMHO, it is early to be making Bold prognostications. -HK