Weekly cotton market review 10/19/2020. COTTON NO. 2 FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT) ICEUS:CT1! Commodity-market-review Help us, by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps, on our website https://www.commodity-market-review.com Blow up the view counters π!! Thanks π ANALYSE TECHNIQUE DU COTON Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed higher at $69.92 cents per pound, hitting the 70-cent mark for the first time since mid-February. Cotton followed a second week of strong gains, buoyed by fears of Hurricane Delta. The trend is still bullish and the next resistance is at 71 cents. The export sales report showed moderate demand last week. Chinese purchases of agricultural commodities under the Phase 1 trade agreement have so far supported U.S. cotton prices. Hurricane Delta made landfall last weekend in Louisiana, turning into a tropical depression and dumping up to 15 centimeters of rain in Louisiana and Mississippi. Soft soils and flooding made access to fields impossible. However, no yield loss is expected, as the cotton in the direct path was harvested before the hurricane hit. However, damage assessment is ongoing. Harvest is 61% complete in Louisiana and 29% complete in Mississippi. The depression then moved southeastward early this week bringing 5 to 10 centimeters of rainfall to central Alabama and northern Georgia, making the soil wet and delaying work. The sunny weekend bleached the fibers and firmed the soil. Harvest is 12-13% complete. Internationally, the situation regarding the U.S. support plan is increasingly uncertain. The possibilities of a full pre-election agreement are weak. The Republicans want to bring a limited aid package of 300 billion dollars to the Senate vote on Wednesday. Nancy Pelosi sets Tuesday as the deadline for a deal. The various twists and turns and sometimes contradictory statements in the run-up to the American election point to a probable increase in volatility on all markets. COTTON WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially underway until November 30, and the U.S. cotton harvest is still underway. Last week Delta made landfall in Louisiana turning into a tropical depression, and then moving on to Alabama and Georgia. The most affected areas are Louisiana and Mississippi with up to 15 centimeters of rainfall, Alabama and Georgia with 10 centimeters. Cotton is particularly sensitive to rainfall during the period when the bolls are open. Alabama and Georgia had a sunny weekend to dry the soil. U.S. CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS ICE cotton stocks rose from 21,963 bales last week to 2,5973 bales, an increase of 18 percent. Stocks are again higher than in 2017, 2018, and 2019 at the same time. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.72, and has been trading in a 93/94 range for the past 2 weeks. The situation is very confusing regarding the U.S. stimulus package. Donald Trump has made many contradictory statements in recent weeks. On Wednesday, the Republicans will propose to the Senate vote a limited support plan of $300 billion. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives has set an ultimatum for Tuesday for a pre-election stimulus. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote on a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT ( Commitments of Traders ) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is up this week to 60.737 K instead of 58.978 K.