Daily cocoa market review 10/09/2020 COCOA FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT) ICEUS:CC1! Commodity-market-review Consult free of charge our daily reviews with graphs, tables, maps on our website: https://www.commodity-market-review.com/ REVIEW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA Yesterday, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed higher at $2474 a ton. Prices are now trading below $2,500, and the trend is bearish . The new 2020/21 season has officially started and Ivory Coast producers are confident, hoping for a larger crop than last year until December. Arrivals in Ivorian ports are 2.074 Mtonnes for the 2019/20 season, 4.2% lower than the previous year. On the demand side, we are still facing a worsening of the health situation, particularly in Europe, the pandemic does not disappear in the United States either, with the approach of Halloween at the end of the month. Reports on cocoa grinding will be published in mid-October and are expected to provide a real update on demand. The announcement that President Donald Trump has tested positive for coronavirus less than a month before the US election is fuelling the news. The American president decided to suspend the negotiations with the Democrats for a new recovery plan. Donald Trump, ahead in the polls, a few weeks before November 3, announced instead targeted aid for sectors in difficulty as well as direct financial aid for households. Increased volatility is to be expected on all markets until the American election. The Ivorian presidential election will take place at the end of the month on October 31. Tensions, resulting in a dozen deaths , have increased since President Ouattara decided to run for a third term, which the opposition considers unconstitutional. Former president and main opponent Henri Konan Bédié called for civil disobedience. A 3-day international mission dispatched to Ivory Coast for a peaceful election has just ended. Stocks of iCE US and EU cocoa are now higher than the previous year at the same time. Cocoa prices have so far benefited from low stocks. COCOA WEATHER REVIEW IN WEST AFRICA Below-average rains in West Africa during July-August gave way to above-normal rains in September. Black pod disease is showing limited signs at this time. This disease appears in case of excessive rainfall. Future rainfall should therefore be monitored and should be interspersed with periods of sunshine . Last week, rainfall was above normal in most of the cocoa producing regions of Ivory Coast. Ivorian producers are expecting a larger crop than last year if rains and sunny periods continue this month. Seasonal forecasts for October for the entire cocoa belt in West Africa predict rainfall 40 to 60 mm above normal. REVIEW OF ICE CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are up to 3630 thousand bags of 60 kg compared to 3642 yesterday. Note that ICE US and EU cocoa stocks are above those of the previous year at the same period. DOLLAR REVIEW The DXY index representing the USD against a basket of foreign currencies closed yesterday's trading at 93.61. The DXY index, which represents the USD against a basket of foreign currencies, was unchanged at 93.61. The DXY continues to move between 93.3 and 94 from a week ago. The U.S. President has dashed any hopes of a new plan to support the economy ahead of the election. Donald Trump being left behind in the polls, investors are hoping for a bigger post-election stimulus package from the Democrats. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the result of the American election. On Wednesday, the FED minutes insist on the need for a quick vote on a support plan, and ensure that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets.