Dollar Dumps In April As S&P Does Something It's Never Done Before April saw gold, bonds, and stocks (The Dow) all rise around 2% while the dollar fell around 2% against its fiat peers... Source: Bloomberg All major US equity indices ended April higher with Nasdaq 100 leading the way and Small Caps lagging... Source: Bloomberg And while the 5%-ish gain for the month in S&P is notable, during 18 sessions this month through trading on Thursday, 95% or more of the index’s members traded above their 200-day moving average. Source: Bloomberg That’s the most days ever observed in a single calendar month and double the previous high of nine days in September 2009. Source: Bloomberg “The fact that 95% of the S&P 500 is now above its 200-day moving average is NOT a bullish sign,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., wrote in an April 26 note. “Yes, a high number of stocks above their 200 DMA’s is usually positive, BUT it is NOT bullish when the number becomes extreme (like it is now…at 95%). In other words, this data point is much like sentiment. When it is strong, it is positive…but when it becomes extreme, it becomes a contrarian indicator!” Remember, if stocks are up... Trannies continue their all-time record streak of weekly gains (now 13 weeks in a row) while the other US majors struggled on the week (with Nasdaq 100 the biggest laggard)... Source: Bloomberg Stocks were down today, initially ignited by Kaplan's hawkish comments and then two modest sell programs in the afternoon... Source: Bloomberg But we note that these do not look like rotation/month-end rebalancing as bonds were also sold at the same time... Source: Bloomberg Financials managed to lead the S&P sectors on the month (despite lower yields) and the Energy sector was laggard (despite surging oil prices)... Source: Bloomberg Despite crushing earnings this week, FAAMG stocks went nowhere (though were up large on the month)... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields were lower on the month with the long-end down 11bps, 2Y unch. This was the first monthly drop in yields since November (and biggest 10Y Yield drop since July) Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields were higher on the week with the long-end up around 7bps Source: Bloomberg April saw Real Yields tumble (and drag gold higher with them)... Source: Bloomberg April saw the dollar on a one-way dump all months, ending down almost 2% - the first monthly loss since Dec 2020. The last three days saw the dollar whipsawed as Fed losses were reversed and stops run... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin surged today, reversing some of April's Ethereum outperformance... Source: Bloomberg Ripple was up 177% in April, Ethereum was up 43%... and Bitcoin slipped 3%... Source: Bloomberg After reaching record highs at $65,000, Bitcoin saw its first monthly loss since September... Source: Bloomberg Ethereum ended the month at its record highs, despite a couple nasty drawdowns... Source: Bloomberg Commodities soared in April - the best monthly return since Feb 2014... Source: Bloomberg Copper was among the best performers in April - back near record highs - and crude also performed well. Gold saw its first positive month of the year.. Source: Bloomberg Copper and Crude rallied this week as PMs modestly lagged. Source: Bloomberg Commodities are the top-performing asset for the first time since 2002... Finally, after 8 straight months of yields rising with soaring commodity prices, April saw that correlation regime collapse with bonds bid (yields dropping) despite spike commodity prices. Source: Bloomberg We wonder who's right? Bonds or Commodities? Depends if you trust 'real' economic data or 'emotion'-based surveys? Source: Bloomberg "Hope" is still not a strategy. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/30/2021 - 16:00