The politicos are out crowing of the booming US economy confirmed by today's jobs report. Despite a worrying retracement in the participation rate: But, as Southbay Research explains, beneath the headline figures, payrolls are slowing... Supply Chain Hiring Grinds to a Halt, Services Takes Over Manufacturing (+4K) Trade & Transportation (+5K) No surprise here, as ISM and other data was pointing to a pullback in these sectors. Also, the jump in Construction (+33K) was called out in our forecast. This is catch-up seasonal hiring and not a trend. For May, expect additional catch-up hiring to keep this figure up. Services Roars Ahead on One-Offs Weakness in Trade, Transportation was offset by strength in: Financial (+12K) jumped on real estate as low rates boosted home buying Landscaping (+20K) on catch-up seasonal hiring Healthcare (+53K) including an unusual jump in Social Services (+26K) Food Services (+25K) Of the 202K additional Services Payrolls, at least 46K is one-time and will not repeat next month (Landscaping + Social Services) And then there's unusually strong Municpal Government Hiring Strong one-off local government hiring (+27K) added to the party Key Trend: Under the Headline Figure, A Payroll Slowdown is underway Manufacturing retreats (+4K) Construction continues (Construction + 33k, Real Estate Financial +8K) Consumer spending is moderating (Trade, Transportation +5K) Services Hiring is moderating. For example, Temp Workers +17K in April but only +12K total the last 3 months April's strong number is the final rebound from February's weakness (aka catch-up seasonal hiring). Coming up next month: Slower Payroll Growth.