The latest CEO confidence numbers signal a negative read-through to ISM and ISM non-manufacturing over the next few quarters, though the relationship appears to have been changing recently. Given the pattern between CEO confidence and ISM non-manufacturing until the 2008 crisis, ISM non-manufacturing ought to drop to ~48. But estimating the relationship since 2010 suggests ISM non-manufacturing will hold above 53 – not too bad! Especially as a “phase one-bounce” in CEO confidence looks likely, in our view, making the read-through less negative.