The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is another central bank that could decide to cut again in response to the bush fires in Australia. Markets are pricing a >50% risk of a cut later this month. Our point is that we are yet to see any early signs of hawkishness from G10 central banks (even the Riksbank hiked softly) despite firmer equity markets and abating geopolitical tail risks. The global PMI also remains firmly in easing territory. Levels around 51.5 in the global PMI are usually roughly neutral to global monetary policy and we didn’t get any closer to those in December, rather the global PMI actually dropped back as Chinese and US manufacturing figures were weaker.