WALL STREET RAW RADIO – SATURDAY – OCTOBER 14, 2017 – WITH HOST, MARK LEIBOVIT. GUESTS INCLUDE: DON VIALOUX, HENRY WEINGARTEN, KYLE DENNIS AND SINCLAIR NOE http://tinyurl.com/yd64rf95 The Bottom Line Equity markets continue to climb a “wall of worry”. Technical parameters are overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. Seasonal influences have turned positive, particularly for economic sensitive sectors (e.g. Materials, Industrials, Financials and Technology). Preferred strategy is to accumulate favoured equities and ETFs on weakness. Economic News This Week October Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to slip to 20.0 from 24.0 in September. September Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a decline of 0.9% in August. September Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 76.2% from 76.1% in August. September Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to slip to 1.17 million units from 1.18 million units in August. Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. China Council meets on Wednesday Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 240,000 from 243,000 last week. October Philly Fed Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 20.2 from 23.8 in September. September Leading Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in August. Janet Yellen speaks on Friday. Canadian September Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in August. Canadian August Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in July. Excluding auto sales, August Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in July. September Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to slip to 5.30 million units from 5.35 million units in August. Earnings News This Week Observations Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was bullish again last week. Notable among stocks breaking resistance were Material and Utilities stocks. Notable among stocks breaking support were Healthcare stocks. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 37 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 27. Number of stocks trading in an uptrend increased to 290 from 286, number of stocks trading in a neutral trend dropped to 78 from 85 and number of stocks in a downtrend increased to 132 from 129. The Up/Down ratio slipped last week to (290/132=) 2.20 from 2.22. Medium term technical indicators (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remain at intermediate overbought levels, but have yet to show signs of rolling over Short term technical indicators (short term momentum, above/below 20 day moving average) mostly moved higher last week to overbought levels, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. Seasonality on a wide variety of equity indices, commodities and sectors began to turn to neutral/positive in early October and continue to improve to the end of October. During the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index normally bottom on October 10th. See updated ratings for markets, commodities and sectors below. Earnings reports from U.S. companies start to pour in this week. Fifty six S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release fiscal third quarter results including nine Dow Industrial companies. The outlook for S&P earnings and revenues remains positive (albeit at a slower growth rate). 5 companies have issued negative fourth quarter guidance and 5 companies have issued positive guidance. Twenty eight companies reported last week. According to FactSet, third quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.2% (down from 2.8% last week) on a 5.0% increase in revenues (up from 4.9% last week). The drop in earnings estimates was attributed partially to hurricanes (13 companies) and currency (11 companies). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.1% on a 5.7% increase in revenues. For all of 2017, earnings are expected to increase 9.1% (down from 9.2%) on a 5.8% increase in revenues (up from 5.7%). First quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.6% on a 6.2% increase in revenues. Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.3% on a 5.9% increase in revenues. Short term uncertainties remain, including assessment of impact of three hurricanes on the U.S. economy, North Korean “sabre rattling”, slow progress by Congress to pass crucial legislation (notably tax reform) and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election. Prospects beyond the third quarter report season are exceptional for U.S. based companies with international exposure. Consensus for S&P 500 earnings on a year-over-year are expected to exceed 10% in the fourth quarter of 2017, first quarter of 2018 and second quarter of 2018. Earnings will benefit significantly from weakness in the U.S. Dollar on a year-over-year basis when revenues and earnings from international operations will benefit from higher valued foreign currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index averaged 100 in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 101 in the first quarter of 2017. If the U.S. Dollar Index currently near 93 maintains that average in the fourth quarter of 2017, revenues and earnings from international operations will be boosted from currency alone by 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016 and by 8.6% in the first quarter of 2018. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index last week added to earnings prospects starting in the fourth quarter. Equity Indices and Related ETFs Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 13th 2017 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day Calculating Technical Scores Technical scores are calculated as follows: Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2 Higher highs and higher lows Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0 Not up or down Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2 Lower highs and lower lows Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2 Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0 Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2 Above 20 day moving average: Score 1 At 20 day moving average: Score: 0 Below 20 day moving average: –1 Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1 Mixed momentum indicators: 0 Down trending momentum indicators: –1 Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower. S&P 500 Index added 3.84 points (0.15%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (also known as the S&P 500 Momentum Barometer) increased last week to 75.80 from 75.00. Percent remains intermediate overbought. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 74.60 from 74.00. Percent remains intermediate overbought. Bullish Percent Index slipped last week to 71.60 from 72.60, but remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought. Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks increased last week to 67.20 from 64.11 and remains above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought. TSX Composite Index gained 78.85 points (0.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive (Score: 2). The Index remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators are trending up (Score: 1). Technical score remained last week at 6. Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (also known as the TSX Momentum Barometer) increased last week to 81.07 from 79.01. Percent remains intermediate overbought. Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 64.20 from 60.91. Percent remains intermediate overbought. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 98.05 points (0.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remains at 6. Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week at 76.67 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought. Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 65.26 from 64.89 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought. NASDAQ Composite Index gained 15.62 points (0.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remains at 6. Russell 2000 Index dropped 7.57 points (0.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6. Dow Jones Transportation Average added 48.34 points (0.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at 4. Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index gained 107.30 points (1.86%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above 5,863.80. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to neutral from negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -2. Nikkei Average gained 464.47 points (2.24%) to a 20 year high. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6. Europe iShares gained $0.59 (1.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 0. Shanghai Composite Index gained 41.58 points (1.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2. Emerging Markets iShares gained $1.03 (2.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4. Currencies U.S. Dollar Index dropped 1.12 (1.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Euro added 0.90 (0.77%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. The Euro closed at its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Canadian Dollar added 0.44 (0.55%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck dipped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Japanese Yen added 0.63 (0.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. British Pound added 2.31 (1.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Pound remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Commodities and Related ETFs Technical scores increased significantly last week with weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 13th 2017 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day * Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts The CRB Index added 3.88 points (2.14%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -2. Gasoline added 6.3 cents per gallon (4.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Gas moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -6. Crude Oil gained $2.16 to 4.38%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to neutral from negative. Crude moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2. Natural gas gained $0.14 per MBtu (4.90%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. “Natty” moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2. S&P Energy Index added $0.72 (0.14%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at 2. Philadelphia Oil Services Index slipped $0.24 (0.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained neutral. The Index dropped below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 0. Gold gained $29.70 per ounce (2.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Gold moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2. Silver gained $0.62 per ounce (3.69%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to neutral from negative. Silver moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -4. AMEX Gold Bug Index added 0.67 (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2. . Platinum added $31.20 per ounce (3.40%) last week. Trend remains neutral. Relative strength changed to neutral from negative. Moved above its 20 day MA. Momentum turned up. Palladium gained $66.50 per ounce (7.24%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength changed to positive from negative. PALL moved above its 20 day MA. Momentum: up Copper gained $0.10 per lb. (3.30%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Copper remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4. BMO Equal Weight Base Metal ETF added $0.10 (0.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4. Lumber gained $12.20 (2.96%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains positive. Lumber remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum remains up. Score remains at 6. Grain ETN added $0.28 (1.09%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength changed to neutral from negative. Units moved above their 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -2. Agriculture ETF gained $0.87 (1.47%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2. Interest Rates Yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped 9 basis points (3.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF gained $2.26 (1.83%) last week Intermediate trend remains up. Price moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Volatility The VIX Index added 0.16 (1.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Sectors Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 13th 2017 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day StockTwits Released on Friday @EquityClock Healthcare Providers ETF $IHF moved below $141.93 completing a double top pattern. Healthcare stocks breaking support setting downtrends following Trump’s tweet: $AET $UHS $UNH $CNC Exxon Mobil $XOM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $82.89 extending an intermediate uptrend. Palladium ETN $PALL moved above $94.79 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength in Palladium price $PALL. Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $XOM $MAA $PSA $EMR $INTU $FMC $AEE $NEE. Breakdowns: $AET $UHS $UNH $CNC $MGM. Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM, breakouts included WY, MOS, EL, VNO, ADI, Q, ADM and CMG. Breakdown: MNK. BCE $BCE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $59.08 completing a base building pattern. CF Industries $CF, a fertilizer stock moved above $36.51 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. Lundin Mining $LUN.CA, a base metal stock moved above $9.87 extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength in Lundin Mining! $LUN.CA Rio Tinto $RIO, a recent BNN Top Pick chosen by Jon Vialoux moved above $50.00 to a 6 year high extending an intermediate uptrend Mosaic $MOS, another fertilizer stock moved above $21.94 setting an intermediate uptrend. Retail ETF attempts to rebound following strong report on sales. equityclock.com/2017/10/13/… $XRT $RLX $RTH Total #Retail Trade down by 5.2% (NSA) in September, 1.7% above average for this summer month. #Economy $MACRO Big jump in #CPI for September, now running over 2% (NSA) year-to-date. Inflation typically softer in Q4. $MACRO Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed