What happened Shares of crude oil producer ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) climbed 55% in the first half of the year due primarily to rising oil prices. ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company, meaning it makes money by drilling for oil and natural gas, then selling those resources. The market price of crude oil is one of the primary factors that drive revenue. Stock prices were down across the energy sector following a very challenging 2020, but the steady recovery of crude oil prices has pulled many energy stocks up with it. ConocoPhillips' price chart looks very similar to the United States Oil Fund (NYSEMKT: USO), an ETF designed to track crude oil's price. COP Total Return Level data by YCharts So what Exploration and production companies have always reflected crude oil prices. ConocoPhillips reported better-than-expected earnings in February and May. It also repurchased $375 million of shares in the first quarter, part of a planned $1.5 billion in buybacks for the full year. Company-specific news has been positive, but this story is all about crude oil prices right now. Spot prices started the year below $50 and are now around $75. That's been far more influential for ConocoPhillips than any financial results. Image source: Getty Images. Now what ConocoPhillips is paying a 2.9% dividend yield, and its valuation ratios fall well within the recent historical range for most of those metrics. There's nothing special indicating that the stock is particularly cheap or expensive. It would have room to move up or down, depending on important news or market conditions. COP Dividend Yield data by YCharts Crude prices should continue to be the biggest catalyst for ConocoPhillips stock, with some modest additional support from ongoing share repurchases and debt reduction. Most analysts are projecting continued recovery in demand for petroleum, though supply is expected to increase even more. That makes it unclear where prices will go from here. Analysts and major banks are projecting oil prices to rise to anywhere from $80 to $100 over the next year, which should deliver proportionate growth for ConocoPhillips shareholders. However, this is all dependent on factors including OPEC policy and recovery from the global pandemic. There are significant unknowns for a stock that's basically a bet on oil at the moment. 10 stocks we like better than ConocoPhillipsWhen our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.* They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and ConocoPhillips wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys. See the 10 stocks *Stock Advisor returns as of June 7, 2021 Ryan Downie has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.Source