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Market Comments for February 9, 2015

 

On Friday the market gapped up a small amount and was quite undecided for the first 20 minutes before breaking out at the 10.00 reversal time and rallying strong for the next hour to set the high for the day just after 11.00. The market consolidated sideways in a tight range, which happened to be right at the prior daily highs. Today toward the end of lunch it began to fall and failed to rally back successfully. It continued this fall throughout the afternoon leaving a small to medium size red bar on the daily chart. The SPY is being shown today but the QQQ and the SPY were identical.

Today will present one of the classic debates in technical analysis. Prices show an hourly chart that is in a nice stage II uptrend and has pulled back to a beautiful support area at “1”. What could stop that from continuing higher? The fact that the daily chart is actually sitting at a major resistance area at “3”. There are no other relevant spots on the chart at the moment. There is a higher resistance area on the daily at the top of the prior highs, but the current area has been approached in a way that the major resistance will likely take hold and prices will see a return of the market to the bottom of the sideways trend on the daily chart. If the daily chart is ready to break out, it is likely prices will still see a pullback on the hourly chart somewhere around 203.00.