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EUR/USD - Descending Triangle

EUR/USD failed to break above 1.3830 as we got into the 4/22 US session. Instead it is threatening this week's low around 1.3785. A break below 1.3780 should open up further bearish risk within a consolidation context. 

(eurusd 1h chart, 4/22)

The structure since early April remains bullish - The upswing from 1.3672 looks "impulsive" while the correct decline within a triangle appears "corrective", using EWF terminology.

At this point, a break above 1.3830 should signal a bullish continuation with 1.3862 and then 1.3905 as near-term resistance. Above 1.3905, the 1.3966, 2014-high will be the next challenge.

If the bullish continuation scenario develops, look for the 1H RSI to tag 70 and then hold above 40 on a subsequent near-term bear-cycle.