Nick Nasad
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EUR/AUD - How High Can It Go?

Well, its been an Aussie dominated week for me as I looked at the AUD/USD today and analyzed the EUR/NZD yesterday. With the verbal intervention by the RBA against the Aussie, and the EUR seeming to have gotten its groove back, I want to look at the long-term picture for the EUR/AUD as this bad boy, when it starts trending can go on for months.

Looking at the daily picture, we see that the pair has had a nice rally since breaking out through the 1.4530 area, with several period of consolidation followed by further breaks (I wrote about the 1.50 level here). We are seeing another push higher above 1.5155.

But, we have to look at the weekly/monthly charts to get a sense of where we have been and where the pair might go.

  • We can see that the EUR has been gaining on the AUD since the beginning of the year, ever since it cleared the neckline of an inverse head & shoulders pattern.
  • Now, the pair approaches the 200-EMA as well as a key pivot at 1.55 which acted as support for a range for this pair back in 2003-2007.
  • With the way the momentum is going, and the comments from the RBA, I can see the pair bursting through this important level and moving back into that aforementioned range.
  • I would target somewhere in the middle of that range, between 1.63 and 1.65, as my medium-term target, once that important 1.55 pivot is breached.
  • Again, with any long term moves, it wont be a straight line, but its important to have some long-term context to keep one grounded in the short term .