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Can FXCM hold the line?

FXCM has recently fended off the 10.00 mark again. As we can see in the 4H chart, this is a key support/resistance pivot area, and the ability to hold above 10.00 suggests a change to the downtrend before December surge. Instead, the market now looks neutral, sideways, with a slight bullish bias above 10.00, and with medium-term upside to the established pivot at 17.35, the psychological level of 20, and even the high above 24.00.

FXCM 4H Chart 5/3

(click to enlarge)

Now, after price held above 10 in March, it consolidated until late April when price broke above the consolidation. This past couple of weeks, we saw price price stall below 13.00 and retreat. 

This week, price has retreated back to the March-April consolidation area, essentially testing this area as support. 

The ability to hold above 11.00 and return above 12.00 would  be a strong bullish confirmation to open up 14.00 first in the short-term. Note that the RSI has pushed above 70 and is now testing 40. If the bullish momentum in April is to extend into May, we should see the 4H RSI hold above 40. This would strongly support the bullish scenario along with price holding above 11.00.

If price falls below 11.00 and/or shows inability to push back above 12.00, the pressure will be back towards the 10.00 pivot again.

I am holding a long position in FXCM so, naturally I am anticipating the bullish scenario. But if price falls below 10.00, it would be a signal to abandon ship as that would re-open the 6.00 area.