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EUR/CHF Seeking a Double Bottom

The EUR/CHF has been sliding persistently in August, falling from a high of 1.2177 to a low of 1.2044 in September. Note that from 1.2177, there was a double top. Then price broke below 1.2155 baseline, and then respected it as resistance. 

Now, we are seeing a double bottom forming. The range of this possible price bottom is between 1.2090 and 1.2044. This is range is about 45 pips wide. So, if there is a break above 1.2090, we should antiicpate a rlaly toward 1.2130. Maybe we should expect sellers at 1.2115-1.2120, a support/resistance pivot area, which also contains the 200-period simple moving average in the 4H chart.

(EUR/CHF 4H Chart 9/8)

On the other hand if the double bottom fails, and there is a break below 1.2044, we can project the 45-pips downwards and that would place the target to 1.20. Remember this is a very key level because the Swiss National Bank is suppose to keep EUR/CHF from falling below 1.20. Therefore, if price approaches this level, anticipate some massive buy orders. 

While the prevailing trend in the 4H chart suggests we should anticipate a bearish continuation, the fact that price is already relatively close to 1.20 gives weight to the bullish expectation. However, we might just have to limit our bullish outlook because while price might not be bearish enough to break below 1.20, the bearish EUR would at least keep EUR/CHF in consolidation.