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Hugo in HTO Trading,

EURCHF: Potential Bearish Divergence

One of the most important events last week was the European Central Bank (ECB) dovish comments, whereby the central bank assumed that additional sets of instruments are necessary, including structural tools. This reflected immediate weakness through the EUR currency.

After disappointing inflation data earlier last week, the seasonal adjustment unemployment rate also increased 3.4% in September from 3.3% the month before. The abandoning of the floor, combined with global turmoil did create some downside pressures for the job market.

Since the beginning of the year the EURCHF plunged more than 9.5% and is in a potential phase change from bullish to a warning phase. The currency fell last week with a wide range and closed in the red near the low of the day. Stochastic is showing an overbought market setting lower highs and price is making higher highs, signs that the upside may begin to get exhausted.

Expecting a downward move to a daily support at 1.0620 on a break below previous week low at 1.0781 (scenario 1) or a break above the weekly support at 1.0809 could trigger a rally up to 1.1133 (scenario 2).