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Hugo in HTO Trading,

NASDAQ 100: Bearish engulfing pattern at 2016 high

Since the beginning of the year the index gained more than 4.5% but last week lost more than 1.0% and also made a phase change, shifting from a bullish to a warning phase.

Last week the index tried to rally but found enough resistance at 2016 high to reverse and closed near the low of the week, in addition managed to close below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The stochastic is showing an extreme overbought market and is setting lower highs while price is making higher highs, signs of a potential bearish divergence.

Expecting a downward move to a weekly support at 4,640 (scenario 1) on a break below the previous week low at 4,754.25 but a bounce of the weekly support at 4,640 may push the index back up to 4,739.25 (scenario 2).