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AUD/CAD Threatening a Key Trendline Resistance

AUD/CAD has been bearish for the most part in 2014, falling from about a high around 1.0350 in April to a low of 0.94 in December. Since the turn of the year however, price action has been bullish, with AUD/CAD rallying to about 1.0050 before retreating. 

AUD/CAD Daily Chart 2/19
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows the bullish swing from around 0.94 to 1.0050 and the pullback to about 0.9590. We saw 2 strong rejections at 0.9590, which was also a support/resistance pivot area in November/December. 

We can see that there is strong support here around 0.96, but will the AUD/CAD-bulls be strong enough to revive the bullish trend started in January? 

First, the structure of price action in January vs. February suggests that the rally was the trending move, while the decline was corrective in nature. Second, the ability to hold above the 50-day SMA would be a sign that bulls are indeed taking over. Furthermore, if the RSI does stay above 40 after it tagged 70 in January, then the bullish momentum in January would still be in play. 

AUD/CAD 4H Chart 2/19

(click to enlarge)

When we look at the 4H chart, we still see a bearish market as price has remained mostly under the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. The RSI has tagged 30, and has held below 60, reflecting maintenance of the bearish momentum. 

However, we are seeing an attempt to reverse that as price threatens to push back above the SMAs and the falling trendline from January. If the RSI also pushes above 60, we would likely be seeing a market anchor to the upside. A subsequent hold above 0.97 would likely convince more bulls to enter and a push above 0.98 would expose at least the 1.00-1.0050 highs with risk of testing the falling speedline seen in the daily chart, perhaps around 1.0100.