Darren Kugler
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Darren Kugler in Commodities,

Are you brave enough to profit from a collapse in gold?

If you are, put your money where your mouth is and buy put options

Bloomberg

A guy walks into a bar in Miami and says: ‘Anyone’s opinion on gold is worth as much as anyone else’s. Nobody really knows anything.’

OK, gold haters. It’s time to put your money where your mouth is.

You think gold could be going down to $350 an ounce? That’s great. Then go out there and buy some put options on the yellow metal. They will pay out, but huge, if your prediction comes anywhere close to being right.

We’re talking very little money down, and a profit of more than 3,000% if you’re right. Cha-ching!

I love writing about gold, because there’s a secret about the gold market that absolutely no professional financial writer or money manager or analyst is allowed to reveal to you all on pain of … well, trolling.

The secret?

Nobody knows a damn thing.

Nobody knows what this metal is worth. Nobody knows if it’s worth a lot or a little. Nobody really knows what drives the price either. They say they do, but they don’t. Is it fiat money? Is it Indian brides? Is it central bankers? Is it the mysterious manipulation of central bankers? Is it bug-eyed Martians using secret death rays?

Nobody has a clue.

The smartest gold bug I’ve ever met, Jim Grant of newsletter fame, told me once that gold was a relative bet. Gold would go up, he said, as the credibility of central bankers went down.

It was a reasonable point. Logically, according to supply and demand, gold could go “up” as the dollar went down, and the dollar could go down if you flooded the market with dollars.

But gold could go up to … what? And at what point would that lack of credibility become fully reflected in the price? How high is too high?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-brave-enough-to-pro...