Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

NZD/USD Breaches 0.88 and Still has Room to Move

The NZD/USD has been bullish. We recently saw a breakout from a consolidation pattern, where I noted the possibility of bullish continuation and new highs on the year. During the 7/8 session, traders extended the breakout until NZD/USD tagged 0.88, making a new high on the year.

 It might take a break at this psychological handle, especially ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. But the technical picture suggests there is still more room to run, from both the momentum perspective, and from comparing the current swing with the previous 2 swings.


(nzdusd daily chart)

The RSI in the daily chart has not reached above 70 yet, so traders do not see an overbought market based on momentum in the daily chart. When you look at the previous 2 swings on in Sept-Oct 2013 and the other in Feb-Mar. 2014, you see that the rally did not fall into significant consolidation until after a bearish divergence with the RSI at overbought levels.

When comparing to the previous 2 swings, we see that the current one has run 400 pips since the beginning of June when it made a low of 0.84. The Sep-Oct 2013 swing was more than 800 pips, and the Feb-Mar 2014 swing was either 650 pips, a little over 700 pips. The current 400 pip rally therefore is not something that should not cause "exhaustion" yet.

Finally, consider time of the previous 2 swings, each taking about 2 months. The current swing started in June, and therefore has to the end of July if it will end up comparable to the previous 2 swings. 

FOMC:
With such strong bullish trend in place, the NZD/USD is poised to push toward 0.90. Only extremely hawkish FOMC meeting minutes should stall the pair. That means, moving the rate hike toward the first half of 2015. This is very unlikely. The more probably scenario is that the minutes will address the poor Q1 growth. If it does not change the rate hike expectation, then NZD/USD could still maintain the bullish trend. The past 2 swings did not even encounter the Q1 GDP issue, so status quo should mean bullish continuation. Dovish minutes will likely send NZD/USD above 0.88 in a hurry.