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Citigroup Issues Warning: A Trump Win Could Trigger A Recession

Citigroup continues to expect lethargic global growth over the remainder of 2016 and into next year, up 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent at market exchange rates, respectively. According to a report byCitigroup Inc Chief Economist Willem Buiter and his team, poor, uncertainty-driven real estate investment, especially within emerging markets, has been one of the main reasons behind the weak global activity.

Uncertainty Will Remain

Going forward, however, the world will see advanced economies grow relatively steadily and emerging markets pick up their pace, the analysts predicted. Notwithstanding, uncertainty will linger, particularly (but not only) surrounding the U.S. presidential election, they added. And, while Citi’s base case contemplates a Clinton victory and relative continuity in policy, risks remain considerable.