Nick Nasad
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NZD/JPY - In a Wedge Following Upswing - Continuation? or Break-down?

I've been monitoring the NZD/JPY pair today as it has squeezed into a wedge pattern and used the 76.20 area, as well as its 200-SMA as support. This is a 15-minute chart, and therefore may be resolved in the Asian session.

Bias: My bias is that we extend the upswing we saw yesterday, and that the price action today was a pause/consolidation. I'm therefore tentatively bullish.

Upside Targets for Bullish Scenario: Therefore, I would like to see the wedge broken to the topside, at which point the 76.70 area becomes interesting as a first target, and beyond that we can look at 77.50. 

Alternate Bearish Scenario: However, if this pair breaks downward (we get a new wave of risk-aversion that boosts the JPY), then a break of the 76.20 support becomes a key signal. If that level then turns to resistance, we could have a swing down first towards 76.05 and then 75.80. 


- Nick