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Can GrubHub (GRUB) Surprise Estimates in Q1 Earnings?

GrubHub Inc.GRUB is set to report first quarter 2016 results on May 3. Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 41.67%. The company has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 27.28% over the past four quarters.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Factors to Consider

A key positive for GrubHub is its business model, which is based on providing an online and mobile platform for restaurant pick-up and delivery orders in the U.S. through its strategic partnerships with restaurants. Its strong presence offers a competitive advantage. Further, increasing usage of connected devices to order online is expected to aid the company, going ahead.

However, the food delivery business is already quite crowded with companies like Postmates, DoorDash, Caviar, Yelp Inc.’s YELP Eat24 and now even Amazon AMZN and Uber.

While GrubHub does have an advantage in the space (its OrderHub and DeliveryHub serve as basic infrastructure products), its business model requires huge volumes to be effective since it charges a lower-than-average rate. This will inevitably put pressure on the company if it fails to successfully implement its pricing strategy and secure more volumes.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that GrubHub will beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: GrubHub has a 0.00% ESP because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 16 cents.

Zacks Rank: GrubHub currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which when combined with a 0.00% ESP, makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stock to Consider

Here is a stock worth considering that, as per our model, has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Enable Midstream Partners, LP ENBL has an Earnings ESP of +21.05% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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YELP INC (YELP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
GRUBHUB INC (GRUB): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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