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German Inflation Soft in April - EUR/USD Retreats

Preliminary CPI data for Germany in April came in at 1.3% on the year. This is up from the 1.0% in February, which does relieve some concern of deflation. However the month to month reading was -0.2% after a 0.3% reading in March. Economists had forecast a reading of -0.1%.

The soft inflation data on the month gives more room for the ECB to act and thus pressured the euro.

(eurusd 1h chart, 4/29)

False breakout, reaction:
EUR/USD fell after another failed attempt to push above 1.3880. This remains the resistance after trader's threatened a bullish breakout to start the week. This reflects a false breakout and thus points to recent consolidation support around 1.3785. The reaction to the soft CPI data was indeed a sharp drop in the intra-session look, with the 1.38 handle and 1.3785 support in sight.

With key event risks coming up in the 4/30 session, trader's might look for support in the 1.3785-1.38 area especially if the 1H stochastic is below 20.

Volatility shake:
Even if there is a break below 1.3785 consider the breakout a volatility shake instead of directional breakout. If we get a pullback that fails to push above the middle of the consolidation, then we can start building the case for bearish outlook. Otherwise, a rise back above 1.3850 for example can revive the prevailing bullish outlook in the 4H and daily charts.