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Hugo in HTO Trading,

Crude oil: Stalling at $50

Since the beginning of the year the commodity lost over 8.5% and last week ended with a loss of over 0.5% in addition crude oil made a phase change, shifting from an accumulation to a recovery phase.

Last week the crude oil went back and forward without any clear direction and closed in the middle of the weekly range, in addition managed to close within the previous week range, which being clearly neutral, neither side is showing control.

The narrow range, narrow spread weekly candle with high volume signals an anomaly signs that the upward momentum in the recent couple of weeks maybe in risk.

Stochastic is showing a strong bullish momentum and crossed above the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 53.66 on a break above the previous week high at 50.41 (scenario 1) however a break below from the previous week low at 48.35 may push the commodity back down to a Fibonacci retracement at 45.34 (scenario 2).