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EUR/USD Threatens Resistance with Bullish Continuation Scenario

EUR/USD is pushing higher as we begin this trading week. As we get into the 4/28 US session, the pair is attacking some key resistance factors:

1) 2-week consolidation resistance at 1.3863.
2) falling resistance that connects the 1.3966 and 1.3905 highs.


(eurusd 4h chart, 4/28)

Bullish continuation:

A push and hold above these factors will reflect a bullish continuation scenario that has the 1.3905 and 1.3966 highs in sight, with further upside risk as well because of the prevailing bullish outlook. 

Bearish scenario:
The 4H chart shows a neutral market, but there is bullish bias going back to February price action. However, if price does hold above 1.3820, the bullish outlook will be suspect. A break below 1.3785 will turn the outlook from neutral-bullish to neutral-bearish, first with the 1.37 handle in sight.

Throwback/consolidation:
We might get some consolidation/correction in the 4/28 US session especially with the stochastic and RSI approaching overbought conditions. A bullish market should push toward the 1.3905 pivot and hold above at least 1.3820, preferably 1.3850.  Otherwise, as discussed above, inability to hold above 1.3820 opens up the 1.3785 consolidation low, which if broken, opens up 1.37.