Nick Nasad
0
All posts from Nick Nasad
Nick Nasad in Nick Nasad,

FX Overview: Small Dose of Risk Appetite, But NFP in Headlights

S&P Pushes Bounce, But Testing Key Short Term Resistance:

The S&P500, along with most other equity markets, managed to rally today, with the S&P500 index pushing through its short term range to test the 1767 area, a level which had been support prior to the decline on Monday. This level is then an important pivot, a test of a short-term downward sloping resistance trendline, as well as the 55-ema in the 4-hour time-frame which is shown above. The key is whether equity bulls can manage to push the index above that key pivot, in which case the US likely saw a good NFP payroll report and there is renewed confidence in the markets.

USD/JPY - First Important Resistance Level Breached:

Since the S&P500 is closely linked to the USD/JPY we see the pair rallying today as well. The move through the 101.80 level was an important first step. While not switching this pair from bearish to bullish, it can give some of the pair's bear pause. Like with the S&P500 the pair runs into the 55-ema in the 4-hour time-frame, but unlike the S&P500 index, it has already cleared its lows from last week. It has also managed to break through the downward sloping resistance trendline when connecting the highs from Jan 21st. Again, its all eyes on the NFP report as to where this pair goes next, but obviously there was some short-covering this week going into the important report.

Earlier today I took a look at the EUR/JPY, which also saw a nice rally, but since that rally was led by a less dovish than expected ECB press conference, I have a higher degree of confidence that the price action there looks like a bottoming action.

EUR/USD Gets A Boost From Draghi, Switching Pair to Neutral Bias

Speaking of Draghi, the Euro certainly got a boost across the board when the ECB President said that the ECB was not acting against the threat of deflation at the current moment, and while options are on the table, it doesnt seem the Governing Council is as ready to act as market participants where perhaps expecting. What we see from the daily picture of the EUR/USD is a choppy downtrend, but one in which the momentum to the downside has fizzled somewhat. The pair was not able to reach the support trendline, or the 200-daily EMA (in gray). The current rally smacked into the 21-day and 55-day EMA's (in red and blue) and found initial resistance there. Therefore this is a good test for the Euro. It would need to climb above those EMA's as well as the channel resistance trendline to switch to a bullish mode, but for me the recent price action means that we have gone from a bearish bias to a neutral one.