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Hugo in HTO Trading,

Crude oil: Retracing from year high

Since the start of the year the commodity gain more than 16.0% however last week fell more than 5.0% and made a phase change on the beginning of July, going from a bullish to a warning phase.

Last week the crude oil fell with a narrow range and closed near the low of the week, however managed to close below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

Stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum although is still above the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to a weekly support at 47.78 on a bounce of the 50-week moving average at 41.86 (scenario 1) and a break above the weekly support at 47.78 may push up the commodity price to a key level at 50.90 (scenario 2).