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USD/JPY - Bearish with 105.50 in Sight

After last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll event, the USD/JPY came under pressure and eventually broke a 2-month consolidation range support around 111.

USD/JPY 4H Chart 4/5

(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows a bearish trend that stalled but is now continuing. 

When we look at the weekly chart, we can see that there might be some support around 110. But if the market doesn't hold USD/JPY above 110, there is a chance it will continue to dive with 105.50 as the next key support.

USD/JPY Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

As we can see in the weekly chart, the 104-105.50 area involves a support/resistance pivot area, and the 200-week simple moving average. With the RSI probably below 30 at that point, we should expect some buying around 105.50. If the market is overwhelmingly looking to buy here, we might see sharp reactions before price gets to 105. 

For now, the short-term and medium-term mode is bearish and we should respect that. However, as price approaches 105.50 or 105, we should consider the long-term bullish trend and the key support factors in this area. We should also consider the fact that the FOMC is still relatively more hawkish than the BoJ, a fact that should keep USD/JPY bullish in the long-term.