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Will BioDelivery (BDSI) Disappoint Estimates in Q1 Earnings?

BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. BDSI is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 10, before the opening bell. Last quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 63.64%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for the first quarter of 2016.

Factors to Consider in Q1

During the quarter, BioDelivery witnessed a key event with its partner Endo International plc ENDP launching Belbuca nationwide for the treatment of patients with chronic pain severe enough to require daily, around-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment and for which alternative treatment options are inadequate.

The agreement with Endo could see BioDelivery receiving certain sales milestones as well as mid-to-upper teens tiered royalty on net sales of Belbuca in the U.S. and a tiered mid–to-upper single-digit royalty on sales outside the U.S.

BioDelivery’s opioid-dependence drug, Bunavail, showed a sequential improvement of 29% in the fourth quarter of 2015. While the number of Bunavail prescriptions increased 66% sequentially, the prescriber base also expanded considerably during the fourth quarter of 2015.

BioDelivery noted that the exclusive preferred formulary status with Tennessee Medicaid for Bunavail was the main growth driver in the fourth quarter of 2015. This two-year agreement with Tennessee Medicaid for Bunavail resulted in expanded use of the drug among other payer types.

The company is working to improve the growth trajectory of Bunavail prescriptions and expects sales ramp up in 2016. The company is working on enhancing its sales management team, and focusing on increasing non-direct sales like outside retail pharmacies, which include inpatient and outpatient clinics, prisons and long-term care facilities among other initiatives. These should help drive the drug’s sales.

On the first-quarter call, key areas of focus will be performance of Bunavail and Belbuca along with other pipeline related updates.

Surprise History

BioDelivery’s performance so far has been disappointing with the company beating expectations only in one of the last four quarters with an average miss of 19.43%.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that BioDelivery is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to likely post a beat. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 36 cents.

Zacks Rank: BioDelivery currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Although the company’s Zacks Rank #3 enhances the predictive power of the ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes a surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc JAZZ has an Earnings ESP of +6.11% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 10.

The Earnings ESP for Impax Laboratories Inc. IPXL is +8.89% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 10.

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BIODELIVERY SCI (BDSI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ENDO INTL PLC (ENDP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
JAZZ PHARMACEUT (JAZZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
IMPAX LABORATRS (IPXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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