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What's in the Cards for ImmunoGen (IMGN) in Q3 Earnings?

ImmunoGen, Inc. IMGN is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Apr 29, before the opening bell.

ImmunoGen’s track record has been disappointing. The company reported wider-than-expected losses in three of the last four quarters, and met estimates on one occasion, with an average negative surprise of 8.35%.

Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

ImmunoGen earns revenues in the form of royalties paid by partners that use its antibody-drug conjugate technology. The company recorded a year-over-year decline in its revenues in the last quarter. A major portion of the company’s revenues come from the amortization of upfront fees and cash milestones, thereby making the top line irregular.

Given that ImmunoGen does not have any approved product in its portfolio yet, investor focus should remain on the company’s progress on its own as well as partnered candidates. The company’s lead pipeline candidate – mirvetuximab soravtansine, currently in a phase Ib/II study (FORWARD II) – is being evaluated in combination with different agents such as Avastin, Doxil and Paraplatin, for the treatment of ovarian cancer. The candidate is also being evaluated in a phase II study (FORWARD I) as single-agent therapy for pretreated folate receptor alpha-positive ovarian cancer.

We note that the initiation of a global phase II study on another candidate, anetumab ravtansine, for the treatment of mesothelioma by its partner Bayer AG BAYRY triggered a milestone payment of $10 million, which is expected to be reflected in the fiscal third-quarter results.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that ImmunoGen is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is pegged at 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at loss of 30 cents.

Zacks Rank: ImmunoGen has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which when combined with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Innoviva, Inc. INVA has an Earnings ESP of +77.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 28.

The Earnings ESP for Sanofi SNY is +4.17% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on Apr 29

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SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY): Free Stock Analysis Report
BAYER A G -ADR (BAYRY): Free Stock Analysis Report
IMMUNOGEN INC (IMGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
INNOVIVA INC (INVA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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