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Estee Lauder (EL) Q3 Earnings: A Beat in the Cards?

We expect leading cosmetics maker Estee Lauder Inc. EL to beat expectations when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2016 results, before the market opens on May 3.

Last quarter, the company posted a positive surprise of 11.93%. Further, Estee Lauder reported positive surprises in all the trailing four quarters, reaching the average to a positive surprise of 22.40%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Estee Lauder is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, stands at +1.67% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged slightly higher at 61 cents compared to Zacks Consensus Estimate pegged at 60 cents. A favorable Zacks ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise.

Zacks Rank: Estee Lauder currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (#4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

Estee Lauder’s Zacks Rank #2 and positive ESP make us confident of an earnings beat in the third quarter of fiscal 2016.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

Estee Lauder has been posting better-than-expected results for the past several quarters backed by organic sales growth, product innovation and cost saving measures.

The company puts great emphasis on innovation. Well-defined and focused innovation ensures constant revenue growth. A special collection of makeup and skin care products — The Estee Edit — was launched under the Estée Lauder brand in Mar 2016. The collection primarily targets the North America Sephora stores and the millennial consumers who visit the stores in the U.S. and Canada, and sephora.com, its online platform. This is expected to boost sales in the upcoming quarter.

Further, Estee Lauder has made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its portfolio. In Dec 2015, the company completed its investment in the novelty Korea skin care company, putting money into brands like Dr. Jart and Do The Right Thing. The company completed the integration of the brands into its portfolio, which is expected to boost earnings in the to-be reported quarter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks in the consumer discretionary sector that investors may also want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

AvonProducts Inc. AVP, with an Earnings ESP of +50.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. NUS, with an Earnings ESP of +8.11% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Carter's, Inc. CRI, with an Earnings ESP of +3.03% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
AVON PRODS INC (AVP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
NU SKIN ENTERP (NUS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ESTEE LAUDER (EL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CARTERS INC (CRI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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