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EURUSD: Broke the upward channel

Last week the Eurostat showed that unemployment in the eurozone fell to 10.8% in September from 10.9% the month before and below market estimates of 11% although the eurozone’s annual inflation rate was 0% in October, a weak reading that could help push the European Central Bank (ECB) to expand its stimulus program.

The US Federal Reserve is moving toward raising interest rates and winding down central bank asset purchases, but European Central Bank (ECB) remains firmly in loosening mode according to its lasts statement suggesting that more stimulus was needed to support the weakening Eurozone economy.

Wages in the US were unchanged in September, the weakest reading in six months, after a 0.5 % advance the prior month. That meant total incomes rose just 0.1% after a 0.4% increase in August. The economists were expecting for incomes to rise 0.2%.

Since the start of the year the currency fell more than 7.5% and is in a distribution phase since mid-October, breaking down the upward channel. Last week the EURUSD went back and forward without any clear trend and closed in the red near the open of the week, creating a doji pattern. The stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum and crossed below the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to year low at 1.0462 on a break below previous week low at 1.0896 (scenario 1) or a bounce from a key level at 1.1105 could push the currency down to year low at 1.0462 (scenario 2).