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AVEO Pharmaceuticals (AVEO) Q2 Earnings: What's in Store?

AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AVEO is expected to report second-quarter 2017 results next week.

In the last reported quarter, AVEO delivered a positive surprise of 7.69%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

AVEO’s share price movement shows that the stock has significantly outperformed the industry so far this year. In fact, AVEO has surged 363% during this period compared with a rise of 11.5% for the industry.

Factors at Play

AVEO, a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, is focused on the development of treatments for cancer and other areas of unmet medical need. The company has shown impressive progress with its most advanced candidate, Fotivda (tivozanib).

EUSA Pharma, the European licensee for tivozanib, submitted written responses to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Day 180 List of Outstanding Issues (LOI) in Apr 2017. It completed an oral presentation in May 2017 related to the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for tivozanib as a first-line treatment for renal cell carcinoma (RCC).

The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) recommended the approval of Fotivda for treating RCC in June, boosting the potential of marketing authorization for the candidate in EU.

Moreover, in Jun 2017, the company announced that a phase I/II TiNivo study has progressed to phase II based on successful completion of the Phase I dose escalation study. The phase II study will evaluate 1.5 mg dose of tivozanib in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company’s BMY Opdivo daily in patients with advanced RCC.

Following the positive safety review by Safety Monitoring Committee to replace early dropouts in Feb 2017, the company completed enrolment in phase III TIVO-3 study in Jun 2017 ahead of the set timeline (Aug 2017). The study compares Fotivda to Bayer AG’s BAYRY Nexavar in patients with refractory advanced RCC.

Apart from tivozanib, AVEO has several early- and mid-stage candidates in its pipeline including ficlatuzumab. In June, the company announced positive results from phase I studies, evaluating the candidate in metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia.

The company depends entirely on collaboration revenues and milestone and other payments for its top line. In Apr 2017, it received a $5 million milestone payment from CANbridge Life Sciences Ltd., related to a technology transfer milestone for its inhibitory antibody candidate, AV-203. Also, during the quarter the company secured $14 million from credit facility with Hercules and at-the-market issuance of common stock as part of its agreement with FBR & Co.

Investors’ focus will likely remain on tivozanib’s progress and other pipeline-related updates.

Surprise History

AVEO Pharma’s performance over the last four quarters has been mixed, with the company surpassing expectations thrice and missing the same once. The average positive surprise over the last four quarters is 8.57%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that AVEO Pharma is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 10 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Although AVEO Pharma’s Zacks Rank #2 increases the predictive power of ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this quarter.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

A Stock That Warrants a Look

Here is a health care stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Clovis Oncology, Inc. CLVS has an Earnings ESP of +6.3% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Aug 02.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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