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Medtronic (MDT) looking more bearish

(Streetinsider.com) Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) reported Q2 EPS of $1.12, $0.01 better than the analyst estimate of $1.11. Revenue for the quarter came in at $7.35 billion versus the consensus estimate of $7.46 billion.

"Q2 revenue was disappointing and did not meet our expectations. We faced issues that affected our growth, including slower than expected revenue as we await new product introductions, particularly in CVG and Diabetes," said Omar Ishrak, Medtronic chairman and chief executive officer. "Despite this revenue shortfall, we produced a strong improvement in operating margins and double digit constant currency earnings per share growth."

GUIDANCE:

Medtronic sees FY2017 EPS of $4.55-$4.60, versus the consensus of $4.66.

The company today updated its fiscal year 2017 revenue and free cash flow outlook and EPS guidance. Consistent with the company's long-term, mid-single digit constant currency revenue growth expectation, the company now expects fiscal year 2017 revenue growth to be within the mid-single digit range on a constant currency, constant weeks basis, as opposed to the upper half of the mid-single digit range signaled previously. The company expects revenue growth for the second half of fiscal year 2017 to also be in the mid-single range on a constant currency basis. While the impact from foreign currency is fluid, if current exchange rates remain similar for the remainder of the fiscal year, the company's full year revenue would be negatively affected by approximately $20 million to $60 million, including an approximate $10 million to $30 million negative impact in the third fiscal quarter. (Full article on Streetinsider.com)

Technical Analysis:
Looking at the technical picture, the market is becoming bearish on MDT after riding a long-term bullish trend since 2009. The latest swing in this long-term trend is from the 64.00 low in Sept. 2015 to the 89.25 high in July 2016. Since then, the market has been in a bearish correction, and it looks like more correction ahead.

MDT Daily Chart 11/22

(click to enlarge)

Bearish signals:
- The first bearish signal is the completed price top when price fell below 86 and 84. 
- The break below the rising trendline in October was the next key bearish signal.
- The fact that the RSI tagged 30 reflects the start of bearish momentum. The fact that it held under 60, shows maintenance of this bearish momentum.
- Finally, price fell below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Then, in subsequent bullish attempts, we saw price respect these SMAs as resistance. This is a bearish slingshot signal.

76 is sticky, 80 is resistance:
- Looking at the weekly chart below, we can see that price has entered a "sticky" area, where price has been oscillating around since 2015. 
- However, if price can extend below 76, there is downside risk towards the 70-72 area. 
- This area involves the 70 psychological level. 72 was a previous support pivot. Also, the rising trendline might reinforce this area as support when price approaches 70-72. 
- Meanwhile, if there is a pullback, watch out for resistance around 80, a support/resistance pivot area. 

Essentially, I think we are waiting for a medium-term bearish correction within a long-term secular bull trend. 

MDT Weekly Chart 11/22

(click to enlarge)