Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
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Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Las Vegas Sands' August Options Are Clearly Mispriced Given Earnings Next Week

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), a developer of destination properties (integrated resorts) that offers accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants and other amenities, which owns and operates integrated resorts in Asia and the United States, is reporting earnings on Monday, July 25, after market close:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The company beat earnings estimates in 25% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming or showing in-line results in 75% of time, and has seen quite a lot of volatility in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

Note the wide deviation of expected financial results.

On the other hand, market data show that the August options are relatively cheap:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The monthly straddles (options with a strike price of $47.50) are worth around 6.3% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been almost as volatile as that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 11.4% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit less than a month has an implied monthly volatility of around 11.1% (calculated based on 20 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event next week. I therefore see signs of clear undervaluation in these options.

What do you think of this trade?