Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
1
All posts from Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Your Option Strategies In Best Buy Pre-Earnings

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is a provider of technology products, services and solutions. The company offers products and services to the customers visiting its stores, engaging with Geek Squad agents or using its Websites or mobile applications. It operates through two segments: Domestic and International. It is reporting earnings on Tuesday, August 23, after market open:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

As evident from the above, the company beat earnings estimates in 100% of time in the last eight quarters and has seen modest volatility and a strong positive trend in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

Market data show that the September options are undervalued:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The four-week straddles (options with a strike price of $32.55 and expiring on September 16, 2016) are worth around 8.4% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been more volatile than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 10.0% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a less than four weeks has an implied monthly volatility of around 9.8% (calculated based on 20 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event next week. I therefore see signs of undervaluation in these options. Hence, buying the straddles is a good idea from a theoretical standpoint.

Investors may also be interested in buying calendar spreads to capitalize on the above-average implied volatility associated with the earnings event:

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

On the one hand, this will limit expected returns. On the other hand, this action will minimize losses in the event the stock does moves swiftly over the next four week. The risk-return profile of this trade looks like this:

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

As you can see from the above illustration, the "window of safety" is around 16.8%. This means that the stock has to move roughly 8.5% in either direction from the current price by expiration in order for investors to start losing money. The risk-reward ratio of around 1:8.2 is phenomenal for this type of option strategies and is deemed attractive for a modest-volatility stock like Best Buy Co.