Nick Nasad
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NZD/USD: Kiwi Finds Buyers But Can Upmove Be Sustained?

The NZD/USD has been a star performer today, really the only currency showing much punch aside from the USD vs the EUR and GBP.

  • The 1-hour picture is an interesting one, and there were a few positive sings to take away.
  • First, the pair found support right at the 200-EMA (in gray). That is usually used as a key support/resistance level by currency pairs that may be in a trend.
  • Second, we had a break out from a short-term downward sloping channel.
  • Third, the pair turned up quite nicely after going into oversold territory in the RSI.
  • Now, the dominant trend in this time-frame comes is up, if we consider the rally we saw from January 10th-14th, and today's support come fairly close to a 61.8% retracement of that upswing. Taking those factors together, the support then around 0.8295 was a technical one.
  • The key is what happens next as the pair approaches resistance at 0.8360. This level was a key support that was broken, then retested as resistance and likely has orders clustered around it.
  • Therefore, if the pair manages to push above that level and hold above, then the Kiwi may be looking to add onto its gains. However a failure to move above that level would spell another downswing and a retest of the support that held today.