Nick Nasad
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US Macro - Rise in Mortgage Rate Signal Flattening of Existing Home Sales?

Just wanted to highlight this image of existing home sales which shows that the pace of sales has flattened after almost 2 1/2 years of gains. While there have been several periods of sideways action during this uptrend (for instance, between Sept 2011 and June 2012, and again between Sept 2012 and Apr. 2013) this time its accompanied by a rising mortgage rate, which has shot up from around 3.5% in April to 4.5% now.

The housing market has been a source for growth for the US economy during the last year or so, and while the absolute numbers are still higher, if the pace of increases in sales flattens out here, it will remove one driver for extra growth in the 4Q and perhaps beyond. 

- Nick