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US Data Misses and Gold Puts in a Price Bottom

Today, the key fundamental release out of the US was its preliminary UMich Consumer Sentiment data for February. It came in at 93.6 missing forecast of 98.2 and falling from the 98.1 reading in January. This data set has been rising and beating forecast in the past 5 consecutive months, so February ended a strong run of UM Consumer Sentiment data. 

This should not have that much impact on the USD. Sentiment has been on the rise, and at 93.6, it is still high on a historic basis. The initial negative USD-reaction has indeed been tentative. 

Gold has started to put in a price bottom in the past couple of sessions ahead of the UMich data. 

Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart 2/13
(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows price breaking above a falling speedline, and above the 50-hour and 100-hour SMAs. The 1H RSI is also pushing above 60, showing loss of bearish momentum. Price appears to be heading back towards the highs on the week around 1245, where the 200-hour SMA resides as well. If the 1H RSI shows a bearish divergence while price approaches 1245, we can expect som resistance with a target back towards at least the 1230-1235 area.

The 4H chart shows the 3-week long bearish price action from the high on the year around 1307. It also shows that the 1245 resistance is reinforced by the 50-period and 200-period SMAs. Above 1245, the next key resistance will be around 1260, which represents some previous support levels, and a falling speedline. A break above 1260, with the 4H RSI breaking above 60 would be needed to extend the current bullish outlook from the short-term into the medium-term, which would expose the 1300 handle and the 1307 high.

However, for now, we should respect those resistance levels at 1245 and 1260.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 2/13


(click to enlarge)