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Tech Talk for Friday December 2nd 2016

 

Observations

Commodity prices moved to a five month high thanks mainly to a spike in energy prices

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday

December, best risk/reward month of year for stocks, as seen S&P 500 Index average 1.4%

Editor’s Note: See full study at http://www.equityclock.com/2016/11/30/stock-market-outlook-for-december-1-2016/ The study based on 66 years of data shows average return per period for the S&P 500 Index is -0.13% (positive 52% of periods) in the first half of the month and 1.59% positive 80% of periods) in the second half of the month. Best performing sectors were Materials, Industrials and Utilities.

Natural gas moved above $3.37 to $3.41 pre-opening extending intermediate uptrend. $UNG Good for “gassy” stocks.

Editor’s Note: Natural gas prices further spiked following release of a greater than expected weekly drawdown in inventories (50 Bcf).

‘Tis the season for natural gas to move higher to mid-December.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to Noon: Bearish. 11 stocks broke intermediate resistance and 20 stocks broke intermediate support.

Editor’s Note: Technical action by S&P 500 stocks turned more bearish after Noon. Breakouts: SBUX and TWX. Breakdowns: EFX, DUK, KORS, CHD, A, TDC, AES, PCG, MCO, EA, EBAY, QCOM. Note that Howard Shultz announced plans after the close to step down next spring as CEO of Starbucks. The stock quickly dropped 7%.

More “gassy” stocks and ETFs breaking resistance extending intermediate uptrends. $PXD, $FCG, $ZJN.CA, $VET.CA

Notable on list of S&P 500 stocks breaking support: Consumer Staples: $AVP $GIS $K $KO $PEP $PM $TAP

Consumer Staples SPDRs $XLP broke below support at $50.21 extending intermediate downtrend.

Agriculture ETF $MOO moved above $51.36 extending intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength to early January!

Bad technical break below $109.48 by Software iShares $IGV establishing new intermediate downtrend.

S&P Utility stocks are prominent on the list of stocks breaking intermediate support: $AES $DUK $PCG $SO .

 

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 1st 2016

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 1st 2016

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 1st 2016

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richards Blog

Following is a link:

http://www.valuetrend.ca/oil-still-needs-break-neckline/

Note invitation to the next meeting of the Toronto chapter of CSTA

Interesting Seasonality Chart from www.EquityClock.com

Commodity prices have a history of bottoming at this time of year for an upward move to April.

Note the high correlation between the CRB Index and the period of time when the TSX Composite Index outperforms the S&P 500 Index from early December to early March. Look for history to repeat

 

S&P Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped another 3.20 to 58.60 yesterday. It remains overbought with an intermediate uptrend.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 0.83 to 55.00 yesterday. It remains slightly overbought with an intermediate uptrend.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed