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NZD/USD - Falling Channel and a Price Top

The NZD/USD appears to have topped just under 0.69 in mid-October. As we can see in the 4H chart price has since fallen to 0.65. 

NZD/USD 4H Chart 11/10


(click to enlarge)

We can see that price essentially completed a top when it fell below 0.6617. It is also in a falling channel. Price is now under the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs). Finally, the RSI has pushed below 30, and held below 60. These are all signs that bears have taken over this market. 

The 4H chart shows that at 0.65, price is testing a falling channel support. In the near-term, we do have some upside risk. However, we should probably look for resistance in the 0.6620-0.6650 area. The next level of resistance is around 0.67, which is critical to the bearish outlook. A break above 0.67 would likely break above the channel and push price back above the cluster of SMAs. Also, to time the anticipated resistance, look for the RSI is approach 60 and turn back down. That would signal maintenance of the bearish momentum after a bullish correction in the near-term. 

In terms of downside risk, there is at least some near to short-term bearish outlook towards the 0.6450 pivot, with a more aggressive outlook towards the lows near 0.63 and 0.6250. 

The AUD/USD is in a very similar technical set up. The same assessment can be made about the Aussie.