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USDCHF : Trading Within Downtrend Channel, No Breakout

(USDCHF : 4 Hour Chart)

USDCHF got some strength after the release of initial jobless claims report but but still trading under the falling resistance trend line on the 4 hour chart. According to the data the number of people who applied for US unemployment claims last week declined slightly by 2000 to 312000. However the 4 week moving average which is considered a better gauge of the labor market conditions increased by 2000 to 314250. Another report showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index rose .2% in May in line with the economist’s expectations. However over the past 12 months the index has surged by 1.8%. Fed target inflation to be close to 2%. If the pace of inflation continue to rise this way Fed might have to think about increasing interest rate sooner than later.

A breakout from the resistance trend line on the 4 hour chart will show a bullish movement. However the bias is towards the downtrend according to which the pair should continue to trade below the resistance trend line as 50 day SMA is contracting towards the 200 day SMA signaling a bearish move.