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This market is ready to crash
14 january 2015

Enough already. How many times are commentators going to call for a crash in the market? It's been this way for years now, and quite frankly, it grows old. As has been said in this column repeatedly, you cannot get a crash until you get the structure in place to allow it. Do we have that structure in place yet as we enter 2015? Is there evidence via supply and demand on the charts to support a bear market? Let's take as unbiased a look as we can.

To get a bear market, you have to get the correct structure on the intermediate-term timeframe, and that would be a break of multiple swing-point lows that can lead to a faster move down — very much like what has been seen in the oil market over the past few months as shown here.

Note, without this structure on this timeframe, for long-term investors, it is just a bunch noise.

So, do we have the same structure now in the S&P 500 — a setup that could potentially push the markets into bear market mode?

At this particular point the answer is no, and we won't have that structure unless we move significantly lower. Now, unlike the setup in the oil market, where the structure was such that a break-and-plunge setup was near the highs in that market, that is not the case at all right now with the S&P 500 as we would have to move down significantly just to get the break that could lead to a bear market.

For that reason, we turn our attention to the short-term time frame to see if it might tell us more about the intermediate term and if a failure has a higher probability of occurring.

What we see here is a possibility of failure — but only a possibility. The setup would be for the market to remain higher than the most recent low until the close of business on Thursday. That would actualize the swing-point low shown above which would put two swing-point lows in close proximity to each other. A break of those two swing point lows to the downside could lead to another leg lower and serve as an early warning sign that something larger is happening — something that isn't bullish.

But that is a lot of "ifs," and so far all we have seen is one leg higher after another in this bull market. It's been this way for almost five years now. Should we assume it is done? No. Is there anything yet to suggest that it is finished? Not really. If in doubt, stay with the trend until there is at least some clear evidence that a turn is happening on the weekly charts and if you want to anticipate it, then at least let the short-term timeframe break down and then have a failed bounce. We don't even have that yet. This is a bull market until proven otherwise. Ignore that at your own peril.

L.A. Little

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