Zacks
0
All posts from Zacks
Zacks in Our Research. Your Success.,

Inovio (INO): What's in Store for the Stock in Q1 Earnings?

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. INO is scheduled to report first-quarter 2015 results on May 9, before the opening bell.

Inovio’s performance has been far from impressive with the company missing earnings estimates in three of the four trailing quarters and beating the same in one. Overall, the company has recorded an average negative surprise of 67.11%.



Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Factors at Play

Inovio is a development-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of active DNA immunotherapies and vaccines in combination with proprietary electroporation delivery devices to prevent and treat various types of cancer and infectious diseases.

VGX-3100 is the most advanced candidate in the company’s pipeline. It has completed a phase II study on VGX-3100 in for the treatment of cervical dysplasia. The company expects an end-of-phase II meeting with the FDA to take place in the second quarter of 2016, following which it will initiate a phase III study in the third quarter.

Inovio is also working on the development of other candidates. The company is evaluating INO-3112 in phase I/IIa studies for the treatment of head/neck cancer and cervical cancer. Inovio has a cancer vaccine collaboration and license agreement with MedImmune, the global biologics research and development arm of AstraZeneca plc AZN for INO-3112.

Other early-stage candidates in the company’s pipeline include INO-5150 (prostate cancer – phase I) and INO-1400 (breast, lung or pancreatic cancers – phase I). Interim data on both candidates are expected in 2016.

With no approved product in its portfolio, Inovio depends entirely on collaborations, grants and government contracts for revenues. Its partners and collaborators include the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and AstraZeneca among others. The company will continue driving revenues from these sources in the first quarter as well.

In the first quarter, Inovio received a grant worth $500,000 from the U.S. Army’s Small Business Innovation Research program for the development of the company’s next-generation delivery device capable of simultaneously administering multiple vaccines via a skin-surface, needle-free electroporation delivery.

Going ahead, investor focus should remain on pipeline updates as well as on the company’s plans related to the development of its Ebola and Zika vaccines.
What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Inovio is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%, since the Most Accurate estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 23 cents.

Zacks Rank: Inovio currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Although the company’s Zacks Rank #3 enhances the predictive power of the ESP, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for Impax Laboratories Inc. IPXL is +8.89% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 10.

The Earnings ESP for Jazz Pharmaceuticals Public Limited Company JAZZ is +6.11% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 10.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
ASTRAZENECA PLC (AZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
INOVIO PHARMAC (INO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
JAZZ PHARMACEUT (JAZZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
IMPAX LABORATRS (IPXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
 
Zacks Investment Research