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Dear Jay... You Have A Problem

It is said that the markets will test a new Fed Chair early on and judging by the fact that financial conditions just tumbled to their 'easiest' in 24 years - despite four rate hikes - Jerome Powell will have his work cut out persuading the market that he is serious (before this bubble bursts).

The 'market' behaved as expected after the initial rate hike in Dec 2015 - financial conditions 'tightened' as The Fed 'tightened'. However, since then The Fed has entirely lost control...

Sending financial conditions to their easiest since August 1993 (with Fed Funds at their highest in 9 years).

A similar picture happened in the latter half of the 2000s - and financial conditions did not shift until The Fed had hiked rates to 5.25%!!

 

So what will the market do to test Powell? Bond market crash, Stock market crash, or volatility hypernova?

(Volcker - CPI tops 10%; Greenspan - Black Monday; Bernanke - Global financial crisis; and Yellen - QE Taper, bond/stock flash-crash, China deval)