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AUD/NZD Respects a Falling Trendline and Retreats

The AUD/NZD pair has been falling since making a high on the year in January at 1.0795. It has since fallen into a fresh record low last week at 1.03. After that we saw a rebound in the second half of the week, but the rally stalled when it hit the falling trendline coming down from 1.0795.

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 2/23
(click to enlarge)

Note that the rally was in a pennant or flag pattern, and the dip to start this week has already broken that correction pattern. Price action looks poised for bearish continuation as it also slides back under the 50-period SMA. Furthermore, the 4H RSI held mostly below 60, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum. The AUD/NZD looks poised to test the 1.03 handle, with risk of breaking lower in continuation of the prevailing downtrend which is still in play as we can see in the weekly chart.

AUD/NZD Weekly Chart 

(click to enlarge)