Nick Nasad
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USD/JPY - Dollar Sold Post NPF vs JPY; Recent Range Broken, 200-SMA Tested

The Dollar weakened against most of its rivals following the NFP report, which showed less jobs added in August than expected (169K), plus some modest revisions to the previous 2 months (-74K). 

  • The USD/JPY has been in a slightly upward channel over the last 3 sessions.
  • During that time the 21/55 EMA market structure was bullish (21 above the 55 and wide distance between).
  • Today, following NFP, pair broke through the support of its channel (corresponding to 99.50 horizontal level).
  • Proceeded to fall down below its 200-sma (in black) before returning to it, around 99.75.
  • A move back below the 200-sma would turn this recent bullish market into a sideways/bearish one
The fall today has some conviction, and if the market was priced in for a September schedule for tapering, today's data may challange those views. In which case, a fall in the USD/JPY pair (and in other USD crosses) could very well be a theme. Today's move in favor of the JPY also had to do with geopolitical risk and the heightened tension over Syria, especially with the G20 and world leaders currently in St. Petersburg.


- Nick