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Actionable news in MOS: THE MOSAIC COMPANY,

Mosaic Company: The State Of Agriculture

The following excerpt is from the company's SEC filing.

Click to edit Master title style 5 Lower, but not a collapse of crop prices, and they have fared much better than other commodities 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2014 2015 Index Source: CRB Commodity Prices 2014 Q1=100 Oil WTI Iron Ore Corn Soybeans HRW Wheat 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 $ Bu Corn Prices Monthly Average of Daily Close of Front Month Contract Source: CME 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 $ Bu Soybean Prices Monthly Average of Daily Close of Front Month Contract Source: CME 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 $ Bu Wheat Prices Monthly Average of Daily Close of Front Month Contract Source: CME (KC HRW Contract) Data through November 13, 2015

Click to edit Master title style 6 Other prices provide some good nd bad news 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 RM/ Tonne Palm Oil Price Daily Close of Nearby Futures Contract Source: Kuala Lumpur Exchange 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 CTS/LB Rice Price Daily Close of Nearby Futures Contract Source: CME 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 CTS/LB Sugar Price Daily Close of Nearby Futures Contract Source: ICE 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 CTS/LB Live Hogs Daily Close of Nearby Futures Contract Source: CME 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 CTS/LB Live Cattle Daily Close of Nearby Futures Contract Source: CME 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 CTS/LB Milk Price Daily Close of Nearby Futures Contract Source: CME Data through November 13, 2015

Click to edit Master title style 7 Mostly weather-related volatility and not long term structural imbalance 606 579 494 407 469 461 424 434 510 566 546 533 520 590 650 660 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F PercentMil Tonnes World Grain and Oilseed Stocks Stocks Percent of Use Source: USDA 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 800 820 840 860 880 900 920 940 960 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F Tonnes/HAMil Tonnes World Grain and Oilseed Area and Yield Harvested Area Yield Linear (Yield) Source: USDA • Farmers responded to high crop prices by expanding area and applying more technology, and then Mother Nature cooperated. • Average yield exceeded trend by a significant margin in both 2013/14 and 2014/15. • The latest USDA estimates, however, put the 2015/16 average yield a whisker below trend and broadly flat inventories. • Continued demand growth is expected to gobble up the second largest crop the world has ever produced. 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F Bil Tonnes World Grain and Oilseed Production and Use Production Use Source: USDA

Click to edit Master title style 8 This is not the 1980s farm crisis! 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15F Debt:AssetBil $ U.S. Net Cash Farm Income Net Cash Farm Income Debt:Asset Source: USDA • The 2016 new crop corn price is trading about in line with the new crop price a year ago, and in the middle of the range of extremely low (1987) and extremely high (2013) new crop prices. • U.S. net cash farm income is estimated to drop 21% to $100.3 billion this year, but that still ranks as the fifth highest ever.

Click to edit Master title style 9 Some observations about China ▪ The USDA is forecasting that China will build grain and oilseed inventories again in 2015/16 − Consequence of high support prices ▪ While they expect stocks in the rest of world to fall 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F PercentMil Tonnes World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks Stocks Percent of Use Source: USDA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E15F PercentMil Tonnes China Grain and Oilseed Stocks Stocks Percent of Use Source: USDA

Click to edit Master title style 10 Some observations about China 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F Mil Tonnes China Soybean Imports Source: USDA ▪ No slowdown of soybean imports − China may build fewer skyscrapers but the population will continue to eat ▪ Markets watching agricultural policy developments − Objectives of high support prices were food security and to provide farm income support (to slow rural-to-urban migration) − Other consequences include record government stocks, record imports of feed substitutes − Potential for lifting the ban on the development of new corn-based ethanol plants in order to sop up inventories − Policy changes could have significant market impacts 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec China Cumulative Soybean Imports 2014 2015 MMT Source: GTIS

Click to edit Master title style 11 The long term food story not n vogu , but still intact 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15F 20F 25F 30F Mil Tonnes Source: USDA and Mosaic World Grain and Oilseed Use Actual for Biofuels Actual Forecast for Biofuels Forecast  Increases in population and income produce predictable increases in grain and oilseed demand.  The global harvest will need to increase about 400 million tonnes during this decade in order to meet this projected grain and oilseed demand.  Demand is projected to increase more than 500 million tonnes during the next decade -- so world production again will need to increase by nearly the current output of the United States.

Click to edit Master title style 12 The long term food story not n vogu , but still intact 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 750 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15F 20F 25F 30F MT HaMil Ha World Harvested Area and Average Yield Actual Area Forecast Area Actual Yield Required Yield Source: USDA and Mosaic  We expect that farmers around the world will need to plant record area and reap record yields, year after year, in order to meet the projected demand for agricultural commodities during this decade and beyond.

Click to edit Master title style 13 Plant nutrient prices have also been under pressure in 2015… MOP Jan 2015: $370 Current: $285 Change: -23% DAP Jan 2015: $481 Current: $423 Change: -12% Urea Jan 2015: $337 Current: $244 Change: -28% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Plant Nutrient Prices Urea - fob NOLA ($/st) DAP - fob Tampa MOP - c&f Brazil Source: Fertecon, CRU, and FMB $/tonne (unless noted) Data through November 13, 2015

Click to edit Master title style 14 …but these lower prices underpin demand as crop nutrients become more affordable More Affordable Less Affordable • Our plant nutrient affordability metric has...


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