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GBP/JPY Breaks out of Low Volatility to the Downside

GBP/JPY made a fresh high on the year in September at 180.70. After that, it fell to 176.64, and has been consolidating between that and the 178.73 resistance. In the past week, volatility has died, as evidenced by price action vibrating between 177.50 and 178, with the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages converged around 177.75. The 1H RSI was also stuck between 40 and 60, showing lack of momentum. 

(GBP/JPY 1H Chart 10/1)

As we got in the 10/1 European-US session, GBP/JPY held below 178.00 again, but fell below 177.50 and cracked the 177 handle, showing some volatility finally, to the downside. The 1H RSI also pushed below 30 which shows bearish momentum. 

If price holds below 177.50, or even 177.75, we should see pressure towards the 176.64 low from last week. Then a break below 176.60 can open up another bearish correction swing, with the 175.36 former resistance pivot as a possible support factor. 

If price holds above last week's low and pushes back above 178, the GBP/JPY will revive the bullish outlook, at least to test the 178.73 high. A break above 178.75 opens up the 180.70 high on the year with potential for further upside. 

The daily chart shows that the market is indeed bullish, and we can anticipate further upside above 180.70 if this week's price action can turn bullish again. Otherwise, a bearish correction has downside risk first to the aforementioned 175.36 pivot. Below that the 173-174 area contains some previous support/resistance pivots and the 100-, and 50-day SMAs and could also provide support. A break below 172 however would suggest that the 180.70 high on the year is here to stay and that GBP/JPY is in a major consolidation, or bearish correction against the 2012 to 2014-low.

(GBP/JPY Daily Chart 10/1)