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Nomura modeled how the economy would change if Clinton and Trump got what they wanted

Steve

It’s not easy to model the economy under a President Trump.

One consequence of a victory by Donald Trump in the presidential election — were his policies to be basically translated into actions — would be a jump in interest rates.

That’s according to an analysis conducted by Nomura’s Lewis Alexander, who looked at the impact on the economy based on proposals from Hillary Clinton and Trump. Alexander is quick to note that neither Clinton nor Trump policies are likely to find their way into practice, because the most likely scenario is a Clinton victory with a Republican House and a divided Senate.

Alexander, in his simulation, assumes a pliant Congress, as well as some guesswork given the vagaries of the candidate plans. (Trump’s tax plan is in particular a work in progress.)

Drawing on estimates...


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